
I participated in a panel discussion yesterday about technology trends. One of the trends that I brought up is the convergence of TV and Internet. With the abundance of mainstream content now on-line and the increasing preponderance of household WiFi, this convergence appears to be nearing its tipping point to widespread adoption.
For those who haven't been following this trend, the convergence of Internet and TV is not about putting TV shows on computers or about putting web pages on TVs. It' s about migrating the vast majority of media consumption from the computer to the living room. The current mainstream entertainment centers are not equipped to deal with much more than video and traditional (non-Internet) radio. As a result, many of us are listening to Internet radio and viewing pictures on our computers. Over time, other currently web-based resources will be available through the TV: entertainment-oriented websites will move to the "big screen" and social features such as chat and conference calling might also make the transition.
While this move will create the biggest change in living room behavior since the advent of the VCR, the implications reach beyond the home. The implications of this convergence are not all entirely clear at this point, but here are three potential repercussions:
On-line Ad Spend
One of the features that the convergence of TV and Internet offers is a changed in the way we consume video. Program schedules may disappear. Rather than waiting for a show to play to be consumed in its allotted time or time shifted by using a DVR, content will likely be available on demand once it is released. This could mean that you might be able to watch an entire "season" of a TV show on the day that it's released, spelling big trouble for TV Guide.
Advertising dollars having been migrating from the TV to the Internet rapidly over the past decade, as the Internet offers advertisers the potential for better targeting and accountability. However, when TV and Internet converge, the shift from traditional TV ad products to the highly targeted and interactive ad products of the Internet will accelerate. What was traditional TV advertising might take on many of the characteristics of Internet solutions: advertisements can be selectively integrated in or around content in real-time based upon targeting metrics (day part, behavior, demographics or other). All video advertisements may be bought based upon who is seeing the ad rather than what show it is playing in.
Democratization of Content
A number of daring media entrepreneurs have tried to compete with traditional TV channels by producing on-line TV series and new shows. They choose to use the Internet as their channel because it enables them to bypass the complexity of the existing entertainment industry - the barriers of entry are much lower - any film student can become an on-line media mogul overnight. While some of the current on-line shows have succeeded, their viewership typically doesn't compare to that of content delivered over the TV; most people's computers aren't connected to their TVs and most people don't want to watch TV shows, news or movies on their computers. Web based media is on the wrong screen.
However, when the TV can access content on the Internet, these small content producers can make their way into the living room and into the mainstream. The barriers to distributing TV shows, news and even movies will go way down. This dramatic change will have a many implications. First, the small guy can finally make it big. Second, as reaching the mainstream becomes easier, more producers are likely to throw their hats in the ring - consumers are likely to have a lot more content to choose from. Third, filtering through the enormous haystack of content will become increasingly difficult, creating the need for solutions that facilitate the search for the needle using crowd filtering and other techniques. Fourth, Hollywood will have to adapt to the new model and make sure that their content remains competitive.
Cable
There are some who believe the TV will bypass the cable cord in the future - one connection point, the Internet connection, will serve the entire household. If these solutions do ultimately enable consumers to "cut the cord", the cable companies might need to reassess their model. I suspect that these companies will endure; many cable companies also offer Internet access - they'll still be part of the supply chain. However, they might have to evolve a bit. For example, if cable access becomes less relevant (because some households access content via the Internet) they might simply begin charging more for Internet access.
Conclusion
When all of this is going to happen is hard to say, but the shift has already begun. Microsoft, HP, Apple, TiVo, your local cable provider, and a host of start-ups have been competing to dominate the digital living room for some time now. As they bring to market better products, the Internet will increasingly be coming to living rooms near you.